The North Korean opportunity

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Our foreign policy is that of Chamberlain just before WWII - try not to upset your enemies and, if necessary, appease them. Chamberlain had at least the excuse that Britain wasn't ready for war and was using every day he gained to build up the country's armed forces. We have no such excuse.

The North Koreans are using our incompetence for their purposes. At the moment the purposes seem to be internal: to consolidate the position of the heir to the throne by attacking the South. The sinking of a South Korean corvette and yesterday artillery barrage on a South Korean island are supposedly a part of this activity. The truth is that we don't really know what they think or plan.

Some of the news media were wringing their hands and declaring the U.S. is in a very tough position in the Far East and really can do nothing about the North Koreans except beg China to restrain them. Apparently our President and Secretary of State agree.

Let's see what the situation actually is:
China has been shielding North Korea for many years. It is in China's interest to have this "bad boy". They are not afraid of the crazy Koreans since China would have no problems crushing them if need be and is indeed maintaining a huge army on the North Korean border. The North Koreans are useful to exert pressure on the South, Japan and the U.S. I don't think that the North is operating under Chinese command and control but it definitely operates to China's satisfaction.
The North Koreans are also useful as a nuclear and missile proliferation proxy: anybody wanting nuclear capability or missiles can buy them from North Korea as long as China approves.

The U.S. and its allies both in the Far and the Middle East seem to be helpless. On the face of it there are few options open to us. And so Syria and Iran are buying technology from North Korea, making the U.S. position in the Middle East difficult. North Korea itself is threatening the South and Japan.

The source of this helplessness is a simple assumption: we can't attack North Korea. Any attack on them will provoke a massive invasion of South Korea and may provoke China to join them. The only alternative left is appeasement in the form of continuing fruitless talks and "humanitarian" aid.

But is this assumption correct?

To answer, we need to examine several issues:

Is North Korea capable of a sustained attack on South Korea?

On the face of it the answer is Yes. The North has one of the largest armies in the world, numbering close to a million soldiers. In the case of of a sudden attack they may be able to overwhelm the South Korean army, that is one fifth of the North's, and the 29,000 U.S. troops in South Korea. Or not. Quantity doesn't equal quality and doesn't necessarily translate into power. (See all Arab wars against Israel). The North has inferior armor and air force as well as unreliable trucks. Which raises the question: would they be able to keep going and defeat the South even if the initial attack is successful? This is questionable. The South and the U.S. have total air superiority in both quality and quantity of aircraft, which by itself may render a Northern attack ineffective. Since only a part of the South Korean army is positioned close to the border it cannot be defeated immediately and can keep fighting - which may be devastating to the North. North Korea has a relatively weak industrial base - not surprising since most of the population is starving. Without a strong military industry and a developed logistics base, wars that take more than a couple of days are unwinnable.

The only chance for a North Korean victory lies with China. If China chooses to support a North Korean attack the situation may become complicated. Should the U.S. fight Chinese forces directly? What if China supports the North only logistically?

The actual question is: is it in China's interest to get involved in a war that has no benefits? They got involved in the Korean war, with Soviet support, to prevent the loss of the North Korean buffer. They stand only to lose by supporting North Korean aggression. Russia can't and won't support China - it has few forces in the Far East and is afraid of China. Chinese trade will be seriously disrupted not to mention that a war against the main importer of their goods is plain stupid.

It seems that the likelihood of a massive North Korean attack on the South is highly unlikely. Which means that the current policy towards North Korea is silly: it rewards and encourages bad behavior with no means to curb it.

Yesterday's artillery barrage presented an opportunity which may still be open: attack the North Korean uranium enrichment plant. Use missiles to make the attack safe for the U.S. and notify the North Koreans that this is retaliation for their attack. At the same time stop all our "humanitarian" assistance to the North and prepare for a North Korean attack, making the preparations open and visible but keeping them obviously defensive.

Such a response may provoke a war but the chances of this are extremely slim. It is much more likely that the North Koreans will pretend that nothing happened and our other enemies will think twice before doing anything rash.

EDIT: As of December 21, 2010 is is clear that Non-Appeasement works. North Korea was threatening to start a war if the South conducts live fire military exercises on its sovereign territory. The South ignored the treats and went ahead with its plans. The result: the North decided NOT to start a war. In other words: challenging a bully and facing them down works every time.