November 14, 2010

Israel in danger

 
Israel is in danger. The danger is existential and has never been as severe as it's now. Not because of its neighbors and not because of an exceptionally unfriendly U.S. Administration. Europe's enmity is also not the reason.

Israel overcame much worse odds in 1948 during its War of Independence and again in 1967. The Yom Kippur war in 1973 was extremely dangerous but not as dangerous as the current situation.

The danger Israel faces is coming from within. It began with the great victory in 1967. The people and the government suddenly felt free of the constant pressure and fear of destruction. The country was invincible. It could be magnanimous to its enemies and start thinking of luxuries like human rights and world opinion.

The error of these ways was demonstrated in 1973. Israel paid a terrible price but came out victorious - this was a given. The Arabs can lose as many battles and wars as they want and still live to fight another day, Israel has no such luxury. The first war it loses will also be the last - its existence will likely be over.

Lots of people took the victory as an affirmation of Israel's strength (which it was) and as a license to continue its liberal and peace seeking policies (which it wasn't). The situation is exacerbated by a leadership problem: the founders' generation is gone and the people running the country now were, mostly, born after the state was established. They tend to take it for granted.

Since the above is correct for a great majority of the population, Israel is developing patterns that fit any other country: bureaucracies that care only for themselves, including in vital organizations like the armed forces, intelligence and Ministry of Defense. Bureaucrats are careful - they don't like the boat rocked and therefore don't encourage out of the box thinking or actions that may endanger their position.

This was sadly demonstrated in the second Lebanon war and a couple of years later in the encounter with the Turkish flotilla (Navi Marmara).

I can't see the current government taking the same decisive action as its predecessors took in Entebe or bombing the Iraqi nuclear reactor. True, Olmert's government decided to destroy the Syrian reactor, but only after the U.S. approved it.
Operation Cast Lead against the murderous Hamas in Gaza was terminated prematurely because of world-wide opposition. This not something the ever precluded Israeli government from doing what was necessary to protect its citizens.
Previous governments understood that the world opposes Israel's existence - it never stopped them and it shouldn't stop the current government. Israel doesn't need permission from any U.S. administration or from anybody else to take care of existential threats like Iran.

Much of the blame falls squarely on the Israeli left. These are people who forgot that they live in a tiny country surrounded by enemies that won't think twice before cutting the throats of every last Jew. They see what they want to see in their delusions: a great power oppressing the "poor" Palestinians. They are not the only ones to blame. The Israeli education system hasn't been teaching the Jewish ethos. It switched instead to promoting the Palestinian one - however twisted and false it may be. The media never tell the full story: Israel's vulnerability is rarely mentioned and the people live in a strange cocoon that simulates life in the U.S.
This reminds me to a large extent of the ailments in the U.S. society, but Israel doesn't have the luxury of a 300 million population, the strongest armed forces in the world and isolation. The U.S. has time. Maybe not much but enough to correct its mistakes. Israel is quickly running out of it.

1 comment:

  1. I believe that Israel will be okay once Obama leaves office. I'm hoping that their reserve of conventional weapons and nuclear deterrent will work to... shall we say dissuade Iran from doing anything dumb.

    Thanks for checking out Pundit Press-- please come back! We're happy to have you there.

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