The Iranian threat

In his article in the Washington Times Reza Kahlili analyzes the possibility of an Iranian victory in a war against the U.S.

Kahlili determines, correctly in my opinion, that such a war won't be a walk in the park for the U.S. His conclusion is based on an assumption of a conventional approach to defeating Iran. If this conventional approach isn't followed the results might be very different from Kahlili's conclusion.

According to Kahlili the Iranians have plenty of means to close the Straits of Hormuz thus disrupting 40% of the world's oil flow. Using their large missile force, submarines (including midget ones) and missile armed speedboats they can inflict serious pain on the U.S. air bases around the Persian Gulf and in Afghanistan.

Iran is a big country, much larger than Iraq and much more difficult to subdue. By the time the U.S. will get its act together and Iran will be in danger of losing the war, the Russians and Chinese will intervene to broker a peace agreement and save the mullah's bacon. In the wake of such a war it's reasonable to expect that the military rulers of Egypt will fall and the ruler of Bahrain will succumb to the Shiite majority. Saudi Arabia will spend lots of resources suppressing uprisings and Israel will be busy defending against Hizballah.

A survivor mullah's regime will be the strongest Islamic force in the world and will be able to act with impunity. The U.S. would have spent large amounts of money it can't afford and, despite all the efforts to conceal it, would have lost face and influence.

Kahlili's scenario is entirely possible, especially with a U.S. administration that will hesitate to start hostilities and if it does, will want to wrap everything up before the elections and declare victory as fast as possible. It will be impossible to win such a war in the conventional sense of the word - Iran will not surrender and will become even bolder if the regime survives.

Iran warned the U.S. not to return its aircraft carrier to the Gulf and the Iranian parliament is debating a law that will make all foreign traffic into the Persian Gulf subject to Iranian approval. The administration's response is not certain, though the President can't appear weak before the elections. The prospect of a difficult war with Iran, even with no ground troops involved, may deter President Obama and hand Iran an easy victory.

But there is another way. The Kahlili scenario involves the use of U.S. air-power against Iranian armed forces, which will lead to an Iranian response and a possible prolonged war. On the other hand the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guard are not the regime's weak spot.

The mullah's regime suffers from a fatally weak economy that is dependent on its oil exports. Terminating exports will be fatal to the regime.
Blockading Iran is not a good option since most of the exports are on foreign vessels and we don't want to fight everybody.
The other option would be to damage the oil fields. Assuming the Iranians attack the aircraft carrier when it sails through the Straits of Hormuz, the U.S. could retaliate with a massive attack on the Iranian oil fields. A successful attack would make most of the installations inoperable, not unlike Kuwait. After this we need only wait. It won't take long for the economy to collapse and take the regime with it. We may have to assist the Iranian people by attacking some headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basiij militia and the President will have to express his support for the people of Iran, unlike the last time they tried to acquire freedom.

It is highly dubious whether the Chinese will be able to do anything fast enough to repair the damage. The Russians will have no incentives to help: inoperative Iranian oil field will cause the price of oil to rise and increase Russia's income enough to compensate for the loss of other revenue from nuclear sales and weapons sales to Iran.

The major victims of this strategy will be the Europeans that rely on Iranian oil and, of course, the world economy. The impact on both can be minimized if the action is coordinated with the major oil producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait and Oman. They will cooperate for two reasons: getting rid of the Iranian threat and making more money.

The only obstacle to this strategy will be the current administration that cant find an Islamist regime it doesn't like, including the Iranian mullahs.