What Obama Wants

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Last week several left leaning columnists in Israel celebrated the reception given Prime Minister Netanyahu by President Obama. Many interpreted this meeting as a return by the US President to relations as usual with Israel and a return to pragmatic, as opposed to ideologue, policies.

This assessment seems to be premature. Only a couple of days after the Netanyahu meeting, the White House changed the status of the Palestinian Mission to the US. Members of the mission were given diplomatic immunity and the mission was allowed to fly the Palestinian flag. A State Department spokesman said that these were only "minor" changes, commensurate with the future independent Palestinian state. This is a telling statement.

There are a number of things that must be clear to the President:

1. Right now is the very worst time to grant the Palestinians any perks of a state. They are refusing to engage in direct talks with Israel and demanding unreasonable concession for just, maybe, agreeing to talk. The President's latest move will only encourage them and make a peace agreement that much more unlikely.
2. The most important issue facing the US and its allies in the Middle East is the possibility of a nuclear Iran. Spending time and political capital on the Palestinian-Israeli peace efforts doesn't solve this serious problem.
3. It is clear that Iran will not be persuaded by further diplomatic efforts. Nevertheless last week a member of Congress, probably at the behest of the Administration, asked the Swiss embassy in Tehran to arrange a meeting with the Iranian leadership, who refused. The request indicates that the Administration is still trying a diplomatic approach or shall we call it a begging approach.

The consequences of a nuclear Iran were described clearly by several senior members of the Administration, including Defense Secretary Gates and Secretary of State Clinton. Among these consequences would be: increased Iranian meddling in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iranian influence, if not control, of the Gulf states, and control over the main sea routes carrying oil to both the US and Europe.

Kuwait and the Emirates are already re-orienting their policies to be in conformance with Iranian demands. We can assume that the others, including Saudi Arabia, will eventually follow, especially after Iran acquires a nuclear weapon.
A nuclear Iran will also pose a serious danger to the US. It is not likely that Iran will attack the US directly but Iran will be in a position to give nuclear devices to terrorist organizations that will do the Iranian's bidding.

So what would explain the President's efforts to encourage the Palestinians in their refusal to negotiate and at the same time ignore Iran?

At first glance there is no good explanation that makes sense of the current US policy. Several sources, including some Israeli, claimed that President Obama is trying to extort concessions from Israel to benefit the Palestinians and achieve a quick peace agreement. This makes no sense since his policy is actually encouraging the Palestinians to refuse to negotiate, making an agreement extremely unlikely. His policy also encourages Iran to keep doing what it's doing: developing a nuclear weapon and building up proxies to attack both Israel and US allies in the region.

The claim that Obama still believes that sanctions and diplomacy will stop Iran is also unbelievable. Only a moron would believe that the mullahs are willing to negotiate at this point in time. Obama is not a moron.

So what is the Presidents desire and plan?

Actually it is very simple and is based on his beliefs as they have been articulated by him and by people close to him. His Middle Eastern policy is based on a number of major beliefs:

1. Israel has no right to exist and its disappearance will solve all the problems in the Middle East.
2. An interruption of the oil flow from the Persian Gulf is a good thing.
3. If there is no Israel and oil is not flowing, we don't care about the Middle East and Iran can have it.

I don't think that I need to justify the first assumption. Barack Hussein Obama spend much of his childhood in a Muslim environment, his close friends are virulently antisemitic and anti-Israeli and it would be quite surprising if he didn't share their beliefs.

An interruption of the gulf oil flow would fit right into the President's domestic policies. It would make cap and trade less important and push gasoline and energy prices to the high levels he wants them to be at.

If there is no Israel and no oil from the Middle East, the area will be of no importance, except of course as a cradle for Islamic terrorism. But according to the Administration there is no such animal. If we just cuddle the Islamists and give them what they want they will become our friends. Without our support of Israel the Islamists may just go away. This kind of thinking is prevalent on the left and Obama is definitely part of that group. It is stupid to believe that after defeating little Satan (Israel) the Islamists will not have an even greater appetite to defeat the Great Satan (US). Some people persist in their beliefs despite hard facts to the contrary.

So the President's current policy may seem contradictory and inept but it really isn't. There is an inner logic and consistency to it. A logic that may, if allowed to run its course, bring both the US and Israel to the brink of destruction. I only hope that Israeli leaders see Obama for what he is and act in the interest of both Israel and the US to defeat Iran.